Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Obama Leads in Florida

Barack Obama is holding his own here in Florida.

PPP’s newest Florida poll finds little change in the state compared to mid-April. At that time Barack Obama led Mitt Romney 50-45 there, and now his advantage is 50-46. Voters in the state narrowly approve of Obama, 49/46, and continue to dislike Romney, giving him a 39/53 favorability rating.

Obama’s strength is based on what’s become a pretty predictable set of groups. He’s up 57-39 with women, 61-36 with Hispanics, 93-7 with African Americans, and 65-27 with voters under 30. Romney’s up 52-46 with seniors and 55-41 with whites but he’d need larger advantages with those demographics to be ahead overall.

That would explain why Gov. Scott wanted to purge the voter rolls. All of the demographics cited in that poll were the ones disproportionately targeted.

The poll also found that both of Florida’s high-profile veep choices for Mitt Romney didn’t really help.

Neither of Florida’s most discussed Vice Presidential prospects would have a huge impact on the race. Marco Rubio is slightly popular with a 44/40 approval rating, but his presence on the ticket would only narrow Obama’s lead to 49-46. Rubio would help some with Hispanic voters, taking Obama’s lead down to 55-40 with that group, but doesn’t make a huge dent overall.

Maybe Katherine Harris is available; she knows something about getting the vote out…in both senses of the word.