Tuesday, May 3, 2016

As Goes Florida…

Donald Trump may have a big house down here, but he’s not winning.  A recent poll has him getting his clock cleaned.

Clinton would wallop Trump by 49-36 percent if the election were held today and she’d best Cruz 48-39 percent, according to the poll of 604 likely Florida voters.

“In this critical swing state, it is clear to us that Republicans continue to suffer substantial brand damage amongst all segments of the ascending electorate (younger voters, Hispanics & No Major Party voters) and this presidential campaign has clearly exacerbated these attitudes,” Ryan Tyson, a Republican who serves as the group’s vice president of political operations, wrote in a memo to his members.

Because Florida is the most populous swing state in the nation, with 29 Electoral College votes, a Florida victory by Clinton would almost guarantee she wins the White House.

To make matters worse, the polling comes not from some left-wing push-poll, but from a business lobby.

Booman paints a bleak picture for the presumptive GOP nominee.

Donald Trump currently doesn’t stand a chance in Florida and it’s just as likely to get worse for him than it is to get better.

A couple of things are really working against Trump. The first is that Hillary Clinton already has net negative numbers in the Sunshine State, and yet she’s still absolutely crushing him. It’s pretty unlikely that Trump can drive her negatives a whole lot higher, so he’s got to do something first and foremost with his gonorrhea-like popularity with key Florida voting blocs.

The second thing is that she’s disciplined and he’s not. When you combine this with the comparative immutability of her approve/disapprove numbers, it’s clear that Trump is both more likely to make mistakes and more likely to pay a substantial price for them.

The numbers in Florida in recent elections pretty closely match those in the general election, so if Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 13 points, that has the historic value of predicting that he’s going to lose nationally.  Florida, for all its, uh, quirks — at least in terms of elections — has been a reliable predictor of how the nation will go.

Interestingly enough, Mr. Trump has turned off one of the most reliably Republican groups here: Cuban-Americans.

Donald Trump is the catalyst who could force a decisive break between Miami-Dade County’s influential Cuban-American voters and the Republican Party, a new poll has found.

Local Cuban Americans dislike Trump so much — and are increasingly so accepting of renewed U.S.-Cuba ties pushed by Democratic President Barack Obama — that Trump’s likely presidential nomination might accentuate the voters’ political shift away from the GOP, according to the survey shared with the Miami Herald and conducted by Dario Moreno, a Coral Gables pollster and a Florida International University associate politics professor.

The trend among younger Cuban-Americans in recent elections has been toward the Democrats, but this election may be the breaking point for the older generations.  Maybe that’s because Trump reminds them of the mobsters that used to back the dictators that preceded Fidel.

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