Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Doing the Numbers

TPM has the polls as polls open in Ohio.

The new SurveyUSA poll finds that Hillary has successfully stopped — and reversed — Obama’s momentum in Ohio.

She leads him by 10 points — 54%-44% — a spread that’s up from six points a week ago (though overall, it’s down from the 17-point lead she held three weeks ago).

One potentially key finding from the survey: She leads him by 13% among the early voting. If this is correct, the pollsters say, Obama would need to carry Primary Day precinct voters 52% to 48% if he is to win Ohio.

Hillary has also expanded her Ohio lead in polls from Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling (D), while slipping in Quinnipiac and Zogby. On the whole, her lead appears to have gone up.

Of course, in the end, a Hillary victory in Ohio doesn’t mean much at all if she loses in Texas.

Okay, so how’s things in Texas?

The new SurveyUSA poll of Texas shows that this primary continues to be a tight race, with Barack Obama having a statistically insignificant one-point lead as Hillary Clinton is apparently making up lost ground. Here are the numbers compared to last week:

Obama 49% (+0)
Clinton 48% (+3)

From the internals: Obama wins men 60%-37%, Hillary wins women 59%-37%. Hillary wins whites 50%-46% and Hispanics 64%-33%, while Obama has a 79%-18% lead among black voters. Obama carries 18-34 year olds by a 59%-38% margin, while Hillary is ahead 59%-37% among voters over 65.

Tomorrow we’ll come back and see how close they are.