Thursday, June 26, 2008

Second Thoughts

I have no basis other than just a gut feeling, but I’m predicting that today the Supreme Court will strike down the D.C. handgun ban and rule that the Second Amendment does guarantee an individual right to own a gun.

I’ve written about guns before, and while I’m not a passionate advocate either way — I won’t own a gun, but I have no problem with other people owning them — my feeling is that regardless of what the Court says, the battle over guns will not be over, and both sides will do whatever it takes to make it a part of the presidential campaign. The candidates will be asked for their response to the ruling and they’ll come out with the predictable answers, and the losing side will vow to fight on for their cause.

Playing guessing games with the Supreme Court is a tough act; I would never have thought that they would have overturned the Louisiana law on the death penalty for child rape, nor would I have predicted they would have stood up to the Bush administration with the ruling on habeas corpus for Gitmo detainees. Be that as it may, I’m going to say that they’ll come down 5-4 to strike down the ban with Justice Kennedy being the deciding vote, and all of the Kennedy-bashing that took place because of the previous rulings will be grudgingly muted on the right — it’s “judicial activism” that they approve of — and taken over by other side as proof yet again that the Court is in the pocket of the Bush administration. That is what is meant by a swing vote; it makes the losers want to take a swing at someone.

I’ll update this post when the ruling is announced. Any bets on my call?

Update: Nailed it.