Friday, October 31, 2008

Poll Watching

For those of you who can’t get granular enough, here’s the latest from TPM on the tracking polls:

Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-47% Obama lead from yesterday.

ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-44.2%, a lead of 6.3 points, compared to the 50.2%-44.4% Obama lead from yesterday.

Note: “Yesterday” refers to Wednesday, October 29.

If you care, see what Karl Rove is predicting. But remember; he got it wrong in 2006.

I still hold with my prediction that Barack Obama will not break 50%. But that’s just me.