Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Poll Watching

TPM has the final composite.

Here’s our final daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Many national polls have coalesced around a projected 52% popular-vote share for Barack Obama, and it shows in our composite:

Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% lead from yesterday.

Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead from yesterday.

ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 54%-43% Obama lead yesterday

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.9%-44.3%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to the 51.5%-44.2% Obama lead from yesterday.

Counting today, Obama’s lead has increased by small amounts in the last five consecutive Composites.

Most elections conclude with a tightening of the race, as the underdog picks up some final bit of steam. But this one seems to have been an exception — McCain began closing the gap, but then Obama just pulled away all over again.