Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Predictions

Michael at The Reaction asked contributors at that august blog to make predictions for tonight’s election results in terms of presidential, Senate, House, and other races. Well, I’ve already stated at least one, but what the hell…nothing ventured, nothing sprained.

* Obama will win, but I doubt that he will get over 50% of the vote and over 300 electoral votes.

* I think the Democrats will gain seats in the Senate but not clear 60. I think they will add to their House margin, perhaps as high as 250. I don’t hold out hope that the three Cuban-American Republicans here in South Florida (the Diaz-Balart brothers and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) will lose, but they will have the daylights scared out of them.

* I think the Prop 8 – the same-sex marriage measure in California – will be very close but will fail. In Florida, Amendment 2 – the same thing as Prop 8 – will pass, ironically because of the high turnout for Barack Obama in the African-American communities. They tend to run conservative on issues such as gay rights, and they will probably be the margin that gets the Yes vote over 60%, the supermajority needed to pass a constitutional amendment in Florida.

There you have it. Feel free to make your own.

Josh Marshall at TPM has some thoughts on what to look for tonight.