Thursday, November 18, 2010

What A Surprise

Sarah Palin tells Barbara Walters that she might run for president in 2012. Yeah, okay, that’s not a news bulletin. She also thinks she can beat Barack Obama. Again, not a surprise; if she didn’t think that she could win, why would she run? I mean, aside from the ego thing and all that. You have to admire her for at least having the hope — the same way I keep hoping I’ll win the Pulitzer Prize for drama — because that’s what keeps people going.

What may be a nasty surprise to Ms. Palin is that even among her supporters, she doesn’t have much of a chance.

Interviews over the last few months with numerous Tea Party and conservative voters in states around the country yielded no one who was enthusiastic about Palin running for president, though a handful said they were open to it. In addition, conservative and Tea Party leaders who are speaking to the grassroots regularly report that they have consistently heard the same thing.

This is more evidence that proves my theory that while the GOP is perfectly happy to have Ms. Palin out there keeping the attention on their brand and supporting their candidates — and keeping the attention off Michael Steele — there is no way that the true power brokers in the party will let her — or any woman, for that matter — be the standard-bearer for the party. And even if she wins in a couple of the early primaries, there’s going to be a strong push-back from the folks like Karl Rove and the people with the money to undermine her.

I suppose in the long run, it might not be a bad idea to let her run and get the nomination. She will be the sacrificial lamb in the 2012 race, and if history is any guide, she’ll get wiped out like Alf Landon in 1936 and Bob Dole in 1996. (Her defenders say that they all laughed when Ronald Reagan ran in 1980. Mr. Reagan, however, had the benefit of completing two terms as governor of California. Ms. Palin is behind that curve by at least one and a half.) Then her political career will be over, she’ll be relegated to the Home Shopping Network demonstrating how to wrap a bear for mailing, and the GOP can go back to nominating straight white Christian patriarchs.

HT to CLW.