Predictions like this make me nervous:
Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.
Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.
I’m not superstitious — knock wood — but when pundits, even those with a proven track record, make statements like this, you know the karma faeries can’t resist it. It’s like talking about a no-hitter in the bottom of the eighth inning; the next thing you know there’s a line drive over the fence.
Superstition and karma charisma aside, there are a lot of real reasons why re-election isn’t a lock for President Obama, not the least being the fact that we still haven’t seen the best — or worse — that the teabaggers and the insane clown posse, aka the House Republicans, have up their sleeves. And even if the wingnuts weren’t in the picture, the Democrats have always had an amazing ability to take an easy win and turn it into a nail-biter.
HT to CLW.