Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Off the Cliff

It looks as if Mitt Romney’s inevitability and electability are taking a beating while President Obama’s numbers are going up.

According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll President Obama has gained a net 11 points in favorability over the past month while Gingrich and Romney have lost 9 and 23 points respectively.

President Obama’s favorability rating has gone from a net negative one point (48%-49%), in the new ABC News/Washington Post poll to a net positive ten points (53%-43%). Two groups are powering the president’s positive swing. Obama has seen his favorability rating improve by six points with Independents, and unfavorable rating decline by five points. By a margin of 51%-45%, Independents now have a favorable view of the president. Obama has seen his favorability rating jump a net 21 points with moderates from 54%-42% to 66%-31%.

While Obama is benefiting from an improved economy and a focus on the middle class and jobs, the favorability of his top two Republican challengers is in free fall. The already nationally unpopular Newt Gingrich’s favorable rating has fallen to 29%. More than half of the country (51%) now holds an unfavorable view of Gingrich.

Polls are fickle things, and numbers change dramatically from week to week; vide Mr. Romney’s huge lead in South Carolina. But if this trend continues, especially here in Florida where the primary is next week, you can expect a complete freak-out by the various camps in the GOP: the Establishments who realize that Newt Gingrich might have a shot and it’s Oh-God-get-Mitch-Daniels; or the Tea Partiers who will see the attacks from the Establishment as proof that the fix is in and they’ll just lose it even more.

Please keep your hands and feet inside until the ride has come to a complete stop.