Tuesday, September 4, 2012

More Like A Thud

Most candidates get some kind of bounce up in the polls after a convention no matter what the eventual outcome is. Walter Mondale did in 1984 and so did George McGovern in 1972 and both of them got walloped in the election the following November. So a bounce is, in the words of the brokerage house disclaimer, not a predictor of future earnings.

Still, it must be disheartening to the Republicans when, after their big blow-out in Tampa, they see that Gallup shows that Mitt Romney got bupkus:

Last week’s Republican National Convention had a minimal impact on Americans’ self-reported voting intentions, with just about as many saying the convention made them less likely to vote for Mitt Romney as say it made them more likely to vote for him.

One theory for this lackluster response that I see rattling through the tubes is that thanks to Twitter, Facebook, texting, blogging, and the constant feed from the cable channels and YouTube, all of the anticipation and surprise has been taken out of the conventions. Voters who are paying attention have already made up their collective mind about the candidates. Nothing they hear coming out of Tampa or Charlotte is going to move the needle.

That puts the pressure on the Democrats to really come up with something that they think will move the electorate, and I’m sure they’re going to try.