Wednesday, September 18, 2013

The Next Mass Shooting

Via Balloon Juice, Philip Bump at The Atlantic Wire:

The next mass shooting will take place on February 12, 2014, in Spokane, Washington. It will be committed by an emotionally disturbed, 38 year-old white man who will kill seven people and wound six more at a place he used to work using a semi-automatic handgun he purchased legally in the state.

That, at least, is what a look at the data on past such shootings might indicate. We’ll say at the outset: Every assertion in the first paragraph is a function of probability, not fact. The next mass shooting — which will happen somewhere, sometime — will almost certainly not be in that place at that time. But a look at the historic data on such killings, compiled and shared by Mother Jones magazine, makes each of those predictions defensible.

If President Obama’s second term has been beset by “unpredictable calamities” like the Navy Yard shooting, in the words of the Washington Post‘s David Nakamura, we thought we’d try and offer a little prediction. Especially since, if such incidents occur at the same pace for the rest of Obama’s term as they have since 2009, there could be 14 more before he leaves office.

And just as predictably, the NRA and its minions in Congress will say that now is not the time to discuss comprehensive legislation like universal background checks and assault weapons bans and nothing will be done.  Count on it.

3 barks and woofs on “The Next Mass Shooting

  1. It makes me feel a gaping sense of disconnect to continue to read about these events. Yes, the Right and the NRA go on claiming it isn’t about the need for gun control…..just show me ANY other first world country that has the same death count from gun violence in the same time period to convince me, please?!

    What really baffles me is how politely the Democrats keep kissing ass in agreement so as to not piss off the alleged “Patriots” of the Second Amendement. Gutless.

    • In fact, they are now ratcheting up the argument that because a good many of these massacres happened in “gun-free” zones, it demonstrates how vulnerable those venues are.

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