Here’s the key concluding line from Charlie Cook’s article on the Corker meltdown: “Last week’s news reduced the odds of the GOP retaining its majority from a good bet to even money.”
So Cook, one of the best known election predictors, says it’s 50/50 who controls the Senate after the 2018 midterm.
A lot of good things would have to fall into place for it to happen, including the Trumpistas primarying moderate Republicans like Jeff Flake of Arizona and Dean Heller of Nevada out of the race and replacing them with bug-eyed neo-Nazis, which would open the race for a well-engineered Democrat to swoop in and pick up disenchanted Republicans and energized Democrats. As it is, the Democrats are defending an inordinate number of seats already.
However, stranger things have happened. As Josh Marshall notes, in 2012 Claire McCaskill was not supposed to win re-election in Missouri until her opponent, Todd Akin, spoke up on “legitimate rape,” and Joe Donnelly of Indiana won a squeaker because his Republican shoe-in, Richard Mourdock, hadn’t fallen into the same trap. But the Democrats have to do their part: they have to come up with strong candidates who can convince the voters on their own merits and visions rather than wait for their opponent to turn into Wile E. Coyote.