Tuesday, December 12, 2017

A Ten-Point Lead?

If this Fox News poll is to be believed, Doug Jones has a ten-point lead going into today’s special Senate election in Alabama.

I don’t believe it.

There are a lot of reasons, both statistical and historical, to doubt that Alabama will suddenly flip that far, and the fine art of polling and analyzing tea leaves got the shit kicked out of it last year when every respectable poll had Hillary Clinton winning up until the moment the polls closed.  But even including all the comfort-food results that show Alabamians getting some courage to vote for a Democrat and make Trump look like a loser, it still amazes me that anyone would think that even given the choice between Moore and Jones, the race would be this close.  In any other situation, even in a deeply conservative state such as Alabama, the idea of electing this antebellum caricature of a racist homophobe and alleged child molester would gross out George Wallace at his worst.

We’ll know this time tomorrow.

2 barks and woofs on “A Ten-Point Lead?

  1. I suspect the Republicans who simply can’t vote for a Democrat, but are uncomfortable with the accusations surrounding Moore will write in a vote for some no-name Republican and that’s a vote for Jones.

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