Steve M argues that Trump will not face a serious primary challenge in 2020.
Maybe Trump’s voters will be disillusioned with the direction of the country in a couple of years, especially if the economy cools off or collapses (though nothing Robert Mueller is investigating will bother them) — but it’s likely that even an economic downturn won’t faze them. George W. Bush retained considerable support within his party even in the waning days of his presidency, when nearly everyone else in America had abandoned him, because he wouldn’t give up on the war, a stance GOP voters cheered because it infuriated liberals. Trump will be in a similar position in two years: We’ll still hate him, so Republican voters will continue to embrace him.
That still won’t prevent some equally narcissistic Republican like Ted Cruz from at the least feinting a challenge to Trump; there’s plenty of hate to go around from the GOP and they roll around in it like a dog in deer scat.
But I also think a lot of people overestimate the power of the GOP base. They get credit for putting Trump in the race and then winning it when there were a lot of other factors that came together, not the least of which was a really bad campaign by the Democrats built on the assumption that this country wasn’t that insane as to elect a hateful caricature as president.
By the time we get to the 2020 race, the whole “piss off the liberals” meme will be getting worn away by the realization of how much damage Trump has done to not just the liberals but to the GOP base itself. The voters who opted for Trump in 2016 because they didn’t think he’d actually win and didn’t like Hillary Clinton, either, won’t necessarily try him again, assuming the Democrats nominate a strong candidate. (That’s another subject altogether.)
The one side benefit of drawing a primary challenger against Trump is that he will have to turn his attention to the traitor in his party’s midst for a while and sow more divisiveness in the ranks. That would be fun to watch.