Here’s the latest.
8:00 PM EDT: Tracking more north.
5:00 PM EDT: The forecast track has Dorian moving a bit to the north towards Melbourne, making landfall on Tuesday as a Category 4.
2:00 PM EDT: It’s now a Category 3 thanks to the warm open waters east of the Bahamas. Still no big change in the forecast track.
11:00 AM EDT: Palmetto Bay is 17 miles south of Miami. It is on the south edge of the 8 AM Monday and 8 AM Wednesday circle, so Tuesday looks like the day we’ll get hit, assuming Dorian follows the track. But that’s why it’s called the Cone of Uncertainty.
8:00 AM EDT: Not much different than earlier today, still tracking north of Miami-Dade County (and Palmetto Bay). The left side — in this case the south side — is usually weaker than the right side. But that’s not to say it will not contain damaging winds and torrential rain.
5:00 AM EDT: The models are showing a slight bend to the south, but still tracking north of Miami-Dade County. It’s also slowing, which means that it could gain strength over the warm waters and hit the coast as a Category 4. Word on social media is that stores from Homestead to Jacksonville have been busy and there are long lines for gas. (The Pontiac has a full tank and the Mustang 3/4 of a tank.)