Friday, August 30, 2019

Hurricane Dorian

Here’s the latest.

8:00 PM EDT: Tracking more north.

5:00 PM EDT:  The forecast track has Dorian moving a bit to the north towards Melbourne, making landfall on Tuesday as a Category 4.

2:00 PM EDT: It’s now a Category 3 thanks to the warm open waters east of the Bahamas.  Still no big change in the forecast track.

11:00 AM EDT: Palmetto Bay is 17 miles south of Miami.  It is on the south edge of the 8 AM Monday and 8 AM Wednesday circle, so Tuesday looks like the day we’ll get hit, assuming Dorian follows the track.  But that’s why it’s called the Cone of Uncertainty.

8:00 AM EDT: Not much different than earlier today, still tracking north of Miami-Dade County (and Palmetto Bay).  The left side — in this case the south side — is usually weaker than the right side.  But that’s not to say it will not contain damaging winds and torrential rain.

5:00 AM EDT: The models are showing a slight bend to the south, but still tracking north of Miami-Dade County.  It’s also slowing, which means that it could gain strength over the warm waters and hit the coast as a Category 4.  Word on social media is that stores from Homestead to Jacksonville have been busy and there are long lines for gas.  (The Pontiac has a full tank and the Mustang 3/4 of a tank.)