Tuesday, February 11, 2020

It Only Takes One

Yesterday I talked about polls and the fact that they are moments and will soon disappear from memory.  But one thing that they can create is an after-image that instills some kind of long-lasting fear of inevitability.  That’s mainly due to the message of immediacy that the media wants to convey: “This just in!” and “BREAKING NEWS” with a headline of something we already knew an hour ago and before the commercial for erectile dysfunction.

We can’t let that overwhelm us, and as the wise ones tell us, look at the whole board, not the individual pieces, and look at the long game, not the next move.  Remember that when the Democrats finally choose a candidate, they are running against an incumbent that in any other case they would beat at a walk.  And while I still believe a poll today is sour milk next week, take some comfort in the fact that at the moment, any one of of the top Democratic candidates could beat Trump.

Bloomberg beats Trump 51-42
Sanders beats Trump 51-43
Biden beats Trump 50-43
Klobuchar beats Trump 49-43
Warren beats Trump 48-44
Buttigieg beats Trump 47-43

Mike Bloomberg isn’t on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary, but he got three write-in votes in Dixville Notch, the little town that votes first.  That may be just New Hampshire contrariness, but it also suggests that they’re ready for a big change.

The pundits are telling us that Trump is a juggernaut, that he’s had the best week ever.  We dispelled that yesterday, but they want a real race; a landslide that wipes him out doesn’t sell papers or time slots, and we’d be back to getting fascinating lessons in obscure history from Rachel Maddow.  Knowing that any one of the six candidates could beat Trump in February means that we really need to make sure that we have one that will do it in November.  It only takes one.

2 barks and woofs on “It Only Takes One

  1. You know how the New Hampshire GOP banned every name except Trump from the ballot? I just saw a tweet that in at least one NH city Trump is losing to write-in candidates.

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