Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Betting On The Cray-Cray

In the real world, the party in the White House usually racks up losses in the mid-term elections.  It happens to both parties.  But that’s assuming there is a reasonable balance between the two parties in terms of ideology and policy.  But with the Trumpers and the conspiracy theorists running around like sugared-up eight-year-olds in a Burger King playground, the past may not exactly be prologue.

Josh Marshall:

Kari Lake, the frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Arizona after an endorsement by former President Trump, has called for the imprisonment of the state’s Secretary of State, Katie Hobbs, along with other election officials and various journalists over the 2020 election. Hobbs is also a leading Democratic candidate for governor. Arizona holds its next gubernatorial election in 2022 and the state will certainly be hotly contested in the 2024 presidential election.

This captures another dimension of 2022 and 2024 as turning point elections. As we’ve discussed in other reporting, Republicans are working diligently to replace conservative Republicans who didn’t support the Big Lie, especially in roles that will play a key role in election administration. So a particularly bad 2022 for Democrats could set up a 2024 election in which the presidency is essentially pre-stolen.

But there’s another dimension which we can see here. Gubernatorial elections in mid-term years always have an advantage for the out-party. But running Trump extremists who are demanding their opponents go to prison could end up electing Democrats. I’m not being pollyannish about. An off-year election is a good time to elect extremists. But it captures what amounts to a high-stakes double or nothing character to these next two years.

There are two governor’s races next month: New Jersey and Virginia. All the attention is on the Virginia contest where former Gov. Terry McAuliffe is running against Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin, who has been walking a knife edge of running to keep establishment Republicans in his camp without pissing off the Trumpers. (Trump himself isn’t doing Youngkin any favors by carrying on about election fraud and supporting the insurrectionists rather than the issues that matter to the electorate of Virginia.) The Democrats aren’t taking any chances on the race. They’re bringing in big guns including Stacey Abrams, who almost won the Georgia governor’s race last year, along with other national figures. The talking heads are saying that this election is the bellwether for the 2024 election.

That could be true, but even if the Democrats suffer losses this year, the Republicans could be emboldened to nominate certifiable nuts like Kari Lake in Arizona and get the shit kicked out of them when they’re up against rational opponents.

A lot also depends on the AK that’s bellowing from Mar-a-Lago. If he runs in 2024, it could drive even more Democrats to be determined not to give in to fascism.

2 barks and woofs on “Betting On The Cray-Cray

  1. People seem to forget about something called the actuarial tables when they talk about a Trump run in 2024. He’s in his mid-70s and is morbidly obese with a terrible diet and doesn’t exercise, unless riding around in a golf cart counts. It’s very likely he won’t be in any shape to run in a couple of years.

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