Time for my annual recap and predictions for the coming year. Let’s see how I did a year ago.
Barring natural causes or intervention from an outside force, Trump will still be in office on December 31, 2019. There is no way he will leave voluntarily and even with the House of Representatives in Democratic control and articles of impeachment being drafted they will not get to the Senate floor because the Republicans are either too afraid to rile up the base or they’re too enamored of their own grip on power to care about the government being headed by a poor imitation of a tin-pot banana republic authoritarian douche-canoe.
That was an easy A. As of today, the articles of impeachment are still with the House as Speaker Pelosi holds on to them.
The Mueller Report will be released to Congress and even though it’s supposed to be classified it will be leaked with great fanfare and pundit predictions of the end of the Trump administration with calls for frog-marching him and his minions out of the West Wing. Despite that, see above.
I get a C on that. There were no leaks and the Mueller report was too nuanced for the punditry to read it and spit out sound bites. The unintended consequence, though, was that the day after Mr. Mueller testified before Congress, Trump picked up the phone and placed an overseas call to Ukraine.
There will be no wall. There never will be. Immigration will still be a triggering issue as even more refugees die in U.S. custody.
That was a gimme.
There will be no meaningful changes to gun laws even if the NRA goes broke. There will be more mass shootings, thoughts and prayers will be offered, and we’ll be told yet again that now is not the time to talk about it.
Another gimme, more’s the pity.
Obamacare will survive its latest challenge because the ruling by the judge in Texas declaring the entire law unconstitutional will be tossed and turned into a case study in law schools everywhere on the topic of exasperatingly stupid reasoning.
Roe vs. Wade will still stand.
With the Democrats in control of the House, the government will be in permanent gridlock even after they work out some sort of deal to end the current shutdown over the mythological wall. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will become the Willie Horton for the GOP base and blamed for everything from budget deficits to the toast falling butter-side down.
An A- on these three. As of today, Obamacare is still in place but the Supreme Court is sniffing around the whack-ass lower court ruling, so see below, and the same goes for Roe v. Wade. The House has passed over 250 bills and sent them on to the Senate, but Mitch McConnell has not touched them, and won’t.
We will have a pretty good idea who the Democratic front-runner will be in 2020. I think Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s chances are still good (she announced her exploratory committee as I was writing this), as are Sen. Kamala Harris’s, and don’t count out Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, but who knew that Beto O’Rourke, a charismatic loser in the Texas senate race, would raise a lot of hopes? That said, fifteen years ago when I started this blog, Howard Dean looked like the guy who was going to beat George W. Bush.
A big old red F on that one.
The economy will continue with its wild gyrations, pretty much following the gyrations of the mood of Trump and his thumb-driven Twitter-fed economic exhortations. The tax cuts and the tariffs will land on the backs of the people who provide the income to the government and the deficit will soon be out there beyond the Tesla in outer space. But unlike that Martian-bound convertible, the economy will come crashing back to Earth (probably about the time I retire in August) and Trump will blame everyone else.
That’s a C. It hasn’t happened yet, but with the deficit doubling since Trump took office, something will have to give. The question was — and remains — when will it?
There will be a natural event that will convince even skeptics that climate change and sea level rise is real and happening. Unfortunately, nothing will be done about it even if lots of lives are lost because [spoiler alert] nothing ever is done.
That’s an A. It’s already happening.
I’m going out on a limb here with foreign affairs predictions, but I have a feeling that Brexit will end up in the dustbin of history.
Another big old red F, right up there with the Dolphins and the Lions ending up in the Superbowl in 2020.
Personally, this will be a transition year. My retirement from Miami-Dade County Public Schools occurs officially on August 31, 2019, and I’m already actively looking for something both meaningful and income-producing to do after that. (E-mail me for a copy of my resume; nothing ventured, nothing sprained.) My play “Can’t Live Without You” opens at the Willow Theatre in Boca Raton, Florida, for a two-week run on March 30, and I’m planning on returning to the William Inge Theatre Festival for the 28th time, either with a play or most assuredly with a scholarly paper. I have my bid in for a variety of other theatre events and productions; I think I’m getting the hang of this playwriting thing.
Things went pretty much as planned this year. I retired on August 31 and started my new part-time jobs the next week. The run of “Can’t Live Without You” was great, and I had a very busy year in getting plays done and conferences attended and new friends made from Miami to Alaska.
On to the predictions:
- Trump will survive impeachment. The fix is in. Revelations about his corruption will keep on coming, and yet the Republicans will cower with him. It will be his big campaign rallying point.
- I have no idea who the Democratic Party will nominate for president, and neither do you, but whoever it is will beat Trump in November despite the best efforts of the Kremlin. I hope it is by such a margin that even Fox News will call it a blowout. Trump will scream and carry on about it being rigged, but by this time in 2020, he’ll be doing everything he can to trash the place on the way out the door with pardons and lame-duck appointments of Nazi sympathizers and pedophiles. (If I’m wrong on this and Trump is reelected, I’m moving to Montserrat. It’s safer to live on an island with an active volcano.)
- Obamacare will survive in the Supreme Court but by a 5-4 ruling.
- There will be more restrictions placed on reproductive rights, but Roe v. Wade will not be struck down.
- The Democrats will take back the Senate by one seat and all that bottled-up legislation will finally get through in time for the House, still under Nancy Pelosi, to pass them all again and get them signed by the new president.
- The economic bubble will burst, the trade deals with China and Europe will screw over the American consumer, and it’s going to look like one of those 19,000 piece domino videos. Trump and Fox will blame the Democrats for the monster deficit and carry on about how we need to cut more taxes and destroy Social Security and Medicare to save them.
- Even with the Democrats taking over in 2020, they won’t be in office until January 2021, so I’ll save predictions for what they’ll come up with in terms of health care, gun safety, and climate change until this time next year, assuming my house in the suburbs of Miami at 10 feet above sea level is still on dry land.
- As for me, my playwriting and productions thereof will continue. I’m planning on my 29th trip to the Inge Festival in May and hope to be invited back to Alaska in June. As I’m writing this, the novel that I started twenty-five years ago tomorrow is on the glide path to land by the time I go back to work next week. I can predict that it will never be published because I never meant it to be.
- As for hopes for the new year, I hope for continued good health and fortune for my friends and family. I can’t ask for more than that.
Okay, your turn.