We had what the National Hurricane Center called a “non-tropical area of low pressure” that dumped about four inches of rain on my part of Palmetto Bay, rattled the windows, and tested my battery back-up on the computer and TV.

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:

A non-tropical area of low pressure has formed near southern Florida along a frontal boundary. This system is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next day or so.

For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

This is what it looked like as it moved through yesterday afternoon.

All’s quiet now.

Bret never made it to hurricane status, and based on the current map (6/21/23 at 0200), it will become a tropical depression after crossing the Leewards as a tropical storm.  But it’s just an overture.

June 1 means the beginning of the North Atlantic hurricane season.  It runs through November 30.  But weather is funny; it doesn’t really pay attention to the calendar, and there’s a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that will bring a lot of rain to Florida.

The peak of the season is around September 16 — my birthday — but the two are unrelated.

This weather system is no joke.

Concerns about illness or inflation aren’t stopping Americans from hitting the roads and airports this holiday season. But a massive winter storm might.

Forecasters predict an onslaught of heavy snow, ice, flooding and powerful winds from Thursday to Saturday in a broad swath of the country, from the Plains and Midwest to the East Coast. A surge of Arctic air will follow. The Christmas weekend could be the coldest in decades.

The National Weather Service said Wednesday the storm was so large and encompassing that around 190 million people are currently under some type of winter weather advisory.

If you’re planning to fly, check with your airline. If you’re driving, make sure your car can make it. If you’re staying home, stay warm.

I have a friend visiting from Oxford in England.  We’re taking the day to go to the Keys.  Lest you think we’re gloating, we’re going to get a taste of the cold front ourselves: the weather forecast for this weekend in Miami is for lows in the 40’s and wind chill warnings as far south as Orlando.  That’s nothing compared to what’s going to hit the Upper Midwest and Northeast, for the homeless or the less-sheltered, it’s no joke.

Suddenly we have a subtropical storm to look out for: Nicole.

From the New York Times:

In much of the United States, it’s hot out there. Still.

Many parts of the Central Plains and Texas are under heat advisories and warnings this weekend and will be well into the week in what is already a historically — and relentless — hot summer, forecasters with the National Weather Service said.

It might not be as hot as it was in recent weeks, but heat advisories will be in effect for much of the Central and Southern Plains, including the Oklahoma Panhandle, east toward most of Oklahoma and Arkansas, southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas, said Bob Oravec, a lead forecaster with the Weather Service. The extensive heat is contributing to droughts in a lot of those areas as well.

Heat warnings are also in effect for Southern California and parts of the Southwest, including Arizona and New Mexico.

Next week, parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas could see their highest summer temperatures to date, with predicted highs reaching 102 to 110 degrees, and the potential for heat indexes to be higher.

On Monday, portions of eastern Colorado, western Kansas and areas all the way up into North Dakota could see temperatures between 100 and 110 degrees, said Stephanie Sipprell, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in the Central Plains.

Although it is normal for temperature highs in the region to reach the 100s in July and August, some cities have either already experienced more 100-degree days than average or are reaching their averages early in the season.

Tulsa, Okla., which has found itself at the center of multiple heat waves, usually endures 10 days of 100-degree highs in the summer. On Friday, the city experienced its 11th 100-degree day of the season, said Pete Snyder, a forecaster for the Weather Service in Oklahoma. Tulsa is predicted to face a few more next week, some reaching 108 degrees.

Little Rock, Ark., has gone through seven days of highs reaching 100 degrees and is bracing for the possibility of six more in the next week. The average number of triple-digit days for the city in the summer is eight, according to Justin Condry, a forecaster for the Weather Service in Arkansas. The state is also enduring a drought, which adds to fire risks and could affect farming.

Farmers specifically feel the impacts of the heat and the drought, which could eventually trickle in to grocery stores,” Mr. Condry said.

The sustained and unrelenting heat also becomes a major issue for urban areas that cannot easily cool down, Mr. Oravec said. “It is harder to cool off at night because the buildings are still radiating heat well after the sun,” he added.

Rest assured that Fox News will find a way to blame this on Joe Biden.

This is the next storm that could become a hurricane that could get close to the mainland.  Its name will be Sam.

Friends along the Gulf Coast, brace yourselves for Ida.

Fred is dissipating.  Grace is tracking across earthquake-ravaged Haiti and up the spine of Cuba, staying off the mainland of Florida.

The National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm and flash flood warning for South Florida until Saturday night thanks to Fred.

The Florida Keys and a swath of Southwest Florida were placed under a tropical storm watch Thursday as weak but very wet Tropical Depression Fred continued to skirt the north coast of Cuba.

Fred, though ragged and “poorly disorganized,” was expected to regain tropical storm strength as it crosses the Florida Straits Friday. But it’s main threat to South Florida this weekend will be heavy rains, with the bulk of it expected Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center, in its 8 p.m. advisory Thursday, said Fred was drenching Cuba and Hispaniola on Thursday and was expected to pass over the Florida Keys sometime Saturday.

Meanwhile, as Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths surge to record numbers, the governor is out in Nevada campaigning. That’s after he backed down from his threat to cut the pay of superintendents and school boards who did not bend to his will. That’s because it’s an empty threat (not to mention illegal). But that’s the way it is with bullies: when confronted, they chicken out and blame someone else.

At least we’re sure of his priorities: he is more interested in running for president than he is in running the state, even if he has to kill people.

Have a nice weekend.

Fred is tracking west, away from Miami, but it’s gonna get wet here this weekend nevertheless.

It looks like we’re going to get some heavy weather this weekend thanks to Fred.  At this point, it doesn’t look to develop to a you-know-what, but things change rapidly this time of year.  As of the 5:00 p.m. AST update, it looks like Miami is on the edge of the cone.

Last Friday I was reporting in from a hotel room in Valdez, Alaska.  This Friday I’m in a hotel room in Fort Myers, Florida, where I came with a friend to see a play in a theatre that might do a play of his.  We had fun driving over in a rented Camaro convertible, dampened by rain about half the time.  But it was fun to drive a car that lights up like a smartphone and has a more complicated top-down process than a open-heart surgery, including raising the “cargo shield.”  I still love my Mustang.  That’s my friend Craig in the driver’s seat.  Looks good.

Now for the fun stuff. You-know-what season has started, and here comes the first one that is sneaking up on Florida: Tropical Storm Elsa. I am hoping it stays clear of us; we’ve had enough of the rain lately. Feh.

We’ll be heading back home later today.