Josh Marshall on a noticeable decline.

I just noticed a write up on Trump stumbling into saying there’s lots you can do in terms of cutting Social Security and Medicare. The Biden campaign and other Democrats were promptly all over those comments, as you’d expect. But it raises a point that is too little discussed in the campaign dialog. Trump has two big advantages right now. The first is simply that he’s not Joe Biden and Biden’s approval has been low since the fall of 2021. The other is a general sense that things were better before the pandemic. You might say, wait, the pandemic happened on his watch and the worst of it took place during his presidency. But that’s not really the public memory. In any case, those are his two big advantages. And they could get him elected.

What this has tended to obscure, however, is that politically he is very, very rusty. Even in Trumpian terms his speeches these days are disjointed, weird, discordant. And again — not by the standard of who you might want within a mile of the Oval Office. I mean even in terms of Trumpian politics. He’s not the same.

I suspect some of that is his age. Some of it may be that he’s just out of practice, despite basically campaigning from the moment he left office. Trump used to have a very clear eye for what people wanted and what they didn’t. Plausibly or not, back in 2016 he was very clear that he had no interest in touching Social Security or Medicare. Why? Because people like them. Trump wants love and he wants power. The way to get those is to make people happy, to give them what they want or at least tell them you’re going to give them what they want. He was very down on Obamacare. But that is because back in 2016 the word if not the program was still not very popular. A politician like Trump is never in the business of convincing anyone that it’s important to do something that doesn’t sound fun and immediately appealing.

Once in power, of course, Trump essentially delegated most of his policy agenda to the GOP. The only thing that seemed to really animate him was trade policy or using domestic trade subsidies to reward supporters — which amounted mostly to the same thing. But in most respects Trump’s entire presidency amounted to taking office with the assumption that being President meant unlimited power and unlimited love. That quickly turned out not to be the case and much of his subsequent presidency and post-presidency became a mix of grievance and payback for that not being the case.

There is a key difference here that is important to understand. Trump’s 2016 campaign’s success stemmed in large part from channeling the cultural and social grievance of middle aged white American men. His 2024 agenda is heavily focused on his personal grievances and doing away with all the restraints on the presidency that hobbled him and led to ego injuries in during his first term — Trump Unbound, as it were. (Think back to 2016 and consider where the “Deep State” or unbridled marxist civil servants would have figured into anything he was talking about.) His enemies are your enemies and he’s going to kick all of their asses. We know all this. It’s the essence of most of his speeches, threats, and so forth. To execute on this he’s surrounded himself with a cast of ideologues who have created a program for him. The folks making the plans are unsurprisingly hard core right-wingers who support a lot of very unpopular things. That’s why Project 2025, the Trumpian government blueprint assembled by a group of Trump administration alums under the aegis of the Heritage Foundation, looks like such a juicy target for Democrats. The people around Trump now know how to write out the plan, how to plug it into the various departments and agencies, and whatever other right-wing stuff that goes along with it is fine with him because it all means power and retribution in his hands.

One of Trump’s 2015/2016 super powers was that he’d come out of American popular culture — the core of it, which is to say, reality TV. These days he sits around Mar-a-Lago, talks to sycophants and prepares for new court dates. You can see a lot of the degeneration in his social media communication on Truth Social. As you know, I considered myself something of an aficionado of rhythmic ferality of Trump’s 2015–2020 Twitter presence (see “Trump Attack Haiku“). The stuff today on Truth Social is entirely different, a kind of digital equivalent of pressured speech, packing a mix of All-Caps yelling and Trumpian buzzwords into one unstructured blob or loaf of bloated menace. He’s not the same.

I’ve thought for some time that Trump shows a lot of the signs of the kind of rage dementia that often eludes detection because the energy of the aggression gets read as focus and executive function rather than cognitive deterioration. What’s been harder for me to read is what part of this is the psychic pressure of the 2020 defeat combined with the accumulating legal peril and what is the accumulated impact of going from 69 years of age to 77. Whatever the precise mix, it also impacts his political agility and feel for the popular mood. It leads to stuff like this wholly unforced social insurance goof. This probably won’t be the only example. It hasn’t gotten much attention yet because even though Trump gets coverage, he hasn’t been in the mix of an actual campaign in years. We’ll see more of it because, again, he ain’t the same.

Having lived among the elderly — including my own contemporaries — and watched my father decline from his gentle self to the shell of a man in a relatively short period of time, I am not in the mood to mock or attempt to control someone else’s mental state.  Unless, of course, he is trying to control mine and that of the rest of the world.

In the case of Trump, he’s not that much older than me; six years or so.  In the case of Joe Biden, he’s ten years ahead of me.  And the conclusion that is very obvious is that people age differently, whether it’s through genetics or the way they live.  But the most obvious difference between the two candidates is how they see the future.  Simply put, Trump doesn’t.  He’s wrapped up in all the slings and arrows of the past, and his only agenda is to get even.  That’s got to take a toll on his ability to just get through the day; if all you see is how the world has ganged up on you and crapped all over your birthday cake, then you’re going to live in a world of anger, resentment, and revenge.  It takes a lot of energy to be that pissed off all the time.  It’s one thing if you’re isolated in your bunker and out of harm’s way for others.  It’s another if you’re trying to wield the controls of power.